Years ago, the writer Sean Monahan coined the term “vibe shift” to describe the way that trends end and new ones begin. Monahan’s term was everywhere after November 2024 when America’s cultural undertones suddenly swung from progressive to MAGA. (And many feel that within just a few months, they’re swinging back again.)

Politics aren’t the only things changing. I think we’re entering a different era for cities — one that will neatly distinguish the first half of the 2020s from the second half.

If a seller’s housing market, Zoom towns, biotech, and the rise of cities like Tampa and Austin defined the early 2020s, then the second half of the decade is going to be quite different.

Here’s why:

The housing market has shifted

After reaching a national record low of housing inventory for sale in March 2022, Redfin is now reporting that there are 500,000 more sellers than buyers based on how long it’s taking for housing to sell.

And the unsold newly built inventory is at its highest level since 2009. Add to this predictions that the upper middle class is going to experience a mass contraction, and people are fearing a housing crash.

I don’t think we’ll see a crash, but we’re definitely no longer in a seller’s market. I wouldn’t be surprised if many of the places that saw above-average price appreciation during the pandemic see something like 5 to 10 percent price declines.

The extra inventory is also only going to last for so long. Most new construction was built during the pandemic years with historically low interest rates. Permitting and construction are down, particularly for single-family homes. Mortgage rates are supposed to drop next year. And by 2030, Gen Z — the largest generation — is going to enter prime family formation years, likely sparking more demand.

Flight to quality of life and talent

In the 2010s, people were seemingly happy to live in any city — practically every major city grew in that decade. Since 2020, many major cities are still net negative population growth. Those that have grown — like Philadelphia, where the Census reported a .7 percent growth from 2023 to 2024— have done so largely due to immigration — which has all but ended since the start of 2025.

So which cities will grow in the second half of the decade?

Much like Class A+ office space is doing fine while the rest of the office market suffers, I think the second half of the decade will result in a flight to top quality of talent and a flight to top quality of life.

Austin exemplifies the problem of being sort of talented and sort of affordable, but maybe not Class A+ for either. The Wall Street Journal recently published a piece about how Austin is no longer ascendant as a tech hub. Ryan Puzycki added:

The main claim of the WSJ article is that regional tech hubs like Austin are losing talent as tech workers return to the coastal megahubs. The WSJ cites SignalFire data showing Austin’s tech employment dropped 1.6 percent in 2024, while startup jobs fell 4.9 percent. LinkedIn data also shows fewer moves from SF and NY to Austin.

I am going to bet on continued growth in places like urban Utah and North Carolina, so long as they remain affordable and punch high for their family friendliness, and the near end of growth in places like Tampa, Austin and Phoenix — all of which were really popular since 2020, but might no longer cut it in terms of affordability and talent. You can already see the slowdown happening in all the places dotted in light green in the Brookings graphic below.

Energy is the new biotech

In the early 2020s, biotech was all the rage and the hoped-for savior from remote work. Now, biotech is experiencing a major downturn. And as the federal government starves universities, the biotech innovation districts are going to be missing their critical university partners.

What’s next for innovation cluster-addicted regions? Energy. Managing the energy needs for AI is going to be huge. Managing the energy transition is also going to be huge. The cities that capture these industries are going to have a lot of work ahead of them in the coming decades.

Regardless, cities might want to move beyond strategies that require tons of capital. They might look to examples like Tulsa Remote, which not only boosted the population, but tax revenues by luring remote workers, and start thinking about smaller niches that they’re pushing for economic development, like the hobby economy.

The decline of higher ed will be worse outside cities

The Philadelphia metro region has seen half a dozen colleges and universities close in the past few years. Most of the time, those closings have meant mergers, not complete and outright losses, with sometimes faculty and buildings being transferred to a new entity.

Meanwhile, outside the city, Penn State is closing seven of its 12 campuses, leaving smaller communities without their anchor institutions. Other recent universities that have closed include the 150-year-old Limestone University in Gaffney, SC (population 12,484), and St. Andrew University in Scotland County, NC (population 34,376). Meanwhile, New Jersey City University recently merged with Kean University in Jersey City, and Cornish College of the Arts merged with Seattle University. Ultimately, urban environments can still pull in the population, share faculty and staff, and make use of more buildings. Rural colleges, by and large, can’t.

2025 may represent a temporary peak in office workers

In 2025, it finally seemed like people were getting back to the office. But AI is going to dramatically change the work of white-collar professionals. On the one hand, it is going to make in-person connection that much more important. In-person sales meetings and presentations will be at a premium.

On the other hand, I expect that increased productivity due to AI will result in a smaller number of white-collar workers overall. This will give the most valuable workers increased leverage to work from anywhere, and they probably won’t pick the office, five days a week. While past generations had white-collar careers and jobs, the future of white-collar work is likely to be more task-oriented, resulting in precarious contract work that may also not need or be worth the expense of a desk job for many employers.

Cities will build on public property and use eminent domain

It’s not just the federal government that is rethinking its public property. Cities are rediscovering their own property, selling it or repurposing it. The City of Albuquerque, NM last month put out a request for interest from developers to figure out how to build housing on public property. More cities should do the same.

Likewise, eminent domain, a third rail for decades, is becoming a little more popular. Dolton, IL made news when it seized Pope Leo’s childhood home rather than let it go up for sale on the private market.

Toms River, NJ is hoping to use eminent domain to stop a church from building a homeless shelter and instead build a pickleball court and park — a gross misuse of eminent domain powers. There have been so many cases of eminent domain making the news lately in New Jersey that Realtor.com wrote about it.

Between these two trends, I think we’re going to see cities get much more aggressive about public property in general.

Diana Lind is a writer and urban policy specialist. This article was also published as part of her Substack newsletter, The New Urban Order. Sign up for the newsletter here.

MORE FROM THE NEW URBAN ORDER